Wheat Market Recap Report for 11/1/2007

December Wheat finished down 29 3/4 at 778 1/4, 34 3/4 off the high and 1/4 up from the low. July Wheat closed down 9 3/4 at 662 3/4. This was 3 3/4 up from the low and 11 1/4 off the high.

December wheat closed nearly limit-down and pushed to the lowest level since August 30th. The market was sharply higher overnight (up above 820 late in the night session) but weakness in commodity markets and a sharp drop in the stock market sparked some across the board selling from funds and lower trade early in the session. Selling intensified on the move under 800 and again on the move under last week's lows. News that Pakistan will tender for 400,000 tonnes of wheat by the middle of November helped spark to solid gains overnight. Weak export sales news with a marketing year low in sales added to the negative tone early. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at 180,200 metric tonnes as compared to trade expectations between 650,000-750,000. Cumulative sales have reached 84.9% of the USDA forecast as compared to 55.0% on average over the last five years. Sales of 151,500 metric tonnes per week are needed to reach the USDA estimate. Tunisia bought 100,000 tonnes of optional origin milling wheat.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 1.50 auf 779.75. Tief/Hoch 776/783.50. Umsatz rund 6.100.

Januar Weizen Hannover minus 7 auf 230. Tief/Hoch 230/230.10. Umsatz 14, davon 4 Januar.
 

Wheat Market Recap Report for 11/2/2007

December Wheat finished up 1/4 at 778 1/2, 7 off the high and 4 1/2 up from the low. July Wheat closed up 7 1/4 at 670. This was 7 up from the low and 2 off the high.

The market closed weak relative to other grains, other commodity markets and KC and Minneapolis wheat. News of Egypt buying some US wheat and solid gains in corn futures helped support the market into the mid-session after a choppy trade early. The late break pushed December wheat to the lowest level since August 31st. The market also saw some support from weather with a frost warning for parts of Argentina growing areas this weekend and with the potential for rains on the eastern Australia wheat harvest this weekend as well. Egypt bought 275,000 tonnes of wheat in their overnight snap tender with 60,000 of the total going to the US. Much of the tender business went to Russia and the trade is slightly nervous with the outlook for expecting Russia to continue to be an aggressive exporter on the world market with the threats by Russian officials to increase taxes on exports. Taiwan is tendering to buy 81,400 tonnes of US wheat. The market also found some underlying support from ideas that India may come in for a tender next week.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 0.25 auf 778.75. Tief/Hoch 774/782. Umsatz rund 4.800.

Januar Weizen Hannover minus 0.50 auf 232, ebenso Tief/Hoch. Umsatz 10, davon 2 Januar. Gehandelte Monate minus 0.50 bis minus 1.
 

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 11/5/2007

December wheat traded 4 1/4 cents lower overnight. Outside market forces look negative.

The market continues to move lower in a volatile manner with traders seeing periods of extreme tightness in the cash market clash with the outlook for a surge in production for the 2008/2009 season. Small speculators have built up a near record high net short position and trend-following funds are also building a hefty net short position. If the weather is favorable for the new crop and end users can hold off until next year to replenish stocks, the market looks to remain in a downtrend. However, if end user buying increases and weather is not favorable, the market looks vulnerable to increased upside volatility ahead. Russia is a key exporter at present supplying 155,000 of the 275,000 Egypt tender last week. However, traders are not certain just how aggressive Russia will be as officials have already threatened to slow exports through high taxes. Dry conditions in the southwestern US plains, talk of further dryness ahead due to La Nina and wet weather in Australia appear to be short-term supportive forces. At the Argentina exchange, traders believe the 2007/2008 crop will reach 15.2 million tonnes, up 1 million from last year. Taiwan is tendering for 81,400 tonnes of US wheat. Pakistan is also expected to be in the market soon for 400,000 tonnes of wheat and Turkey is expected to tender for 300,000 tonnes. Pakistan tendered for 50,000 tonnes on Saturday.

The market closed weak relative to other grains, other commodity markets and KC and Minneapolis wheat. News of Egypt buying some US wheat and solid gains in corn futures helped support the market into the mid-session on Friday after a choppy trade early. The late break pushed December wheat to the lowest level since August 31st. The market also saw some support from weather with a frost warning for parts of Argentina growing areas this weekend and with the potential for rains on the eastern Australia wheat harvest this weekend as well. Egypt bought 275,000 tonnes of wheat in their snap tender with 60,000 of the total going to the US. Much of the tender business went to Russia and the trade is slightly nervous due to expectations that Russia will continue to be an aggressive exporter on the world market contrasted by threats by Russian officials to increase taxes on exports. The market also found some underlying support from ideas that India may come in for a tender this week.

Australia is too wet and western Kansas down to the Texas Panhandle is too dry. Traders see only slight damage from the frost in Argentina. Basis at the Gulf was steady. The Commitments of Traders report with options on Friday showed the market in a positive set-up but the selling trend of the non-commercial trader (funds) is a short-term negative force. The supplemental report which excludes index funds showed that trend-following funds were actually net short 11,634 contracts not the net long position of 14,660 posted in the traditional report. Non-reportable traders hold a hefty net short position of 34,965 contracts.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 4.25 auf 774.25. Tief/Hoch 774/782. Umsatz rund 5.000.

Mai Weizen Hannover minus 2.50 auf 233. Tief/Hoch 233/234.60. Umsatz 37, davon 18 Mai.

Neue Ernte: November 2008 minus 5 auf 190, Umsatz 9.
 

Wheat Market Recap Report for 11/5/2007

December Wheat finished up 6 1/2 at 785, 7 off the high and 14 1/2 up from the low. July Wheat closed up 1/2 at 670 1/2. This was 6 up from the low and 2 1/2 off the high.

The hook reversal from an extreme oversold technical condition could spark some follow-through technical buying in wheat early this week. The early break to the lowest level since August 30th failed to attract new selling interest from speculators and the market experienced a surge higher from short-covering. Commercial buying and bull spreading help pull nearby Minneapolis wheat futures up 15 cents on the day which provided a base of support for the other wheat exchanges. Ideas that demand is a little better than expected, slight weather problems in Argentina and Australia and dry weather issues in the US helped provide some underlying support. Weekly export inspections, released during the session, came in at 29.4 million bushels as compared with trade expectations for 25-35 million. Shipments need to average 17.6 million bushels per week to reach the current USDA export forecast for the 2007/2008 season. A lack of rain in the 7-day forecast for the hard red winter wheat belt in the US was also seen as a positive factor. Weakness in corn helped spark the early pressure but buyers were active into the mid-session.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 10.25 auf 795.25. Tief/Hoch 786.25/796.50. Umsatz rund 6.400.

Januar Weizen Hannover plus 1.50 auf 233.50. Tief/Hoch 232/233.50. Geld/Brief 233.50/235. Umsatz 11, davon 8 Januar.

Neue Ernte: Januar 2009 minus 5 auf 190. Geld/Brief 190.10/200. Umsatz 3.
 

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 11/6/2007

December wheat traded 10 1/4 cents higher overnight. The overall tone this morning is strong with bullish outside market influences.

Export demand is a big factor this morning, with Pakistan announcing a tender for 300,000 tons of soft white wheat next week and an additional 20,000 tons in a separate tender. Origins are expected to be Black Sea and other non-European sources, although this may push other demand into Europe. While this news is not a surprise, it does tend to push the issue of new crop acreage and weather temporarily to the sidelines. The market appears to have become oversold, as was indicated on the Commitments of Traders Report by the near record short spec position and the heavily short position being built up by trend-following funds. Acreage and weather news is a mixed bag this morning. On the bearish side, industry estimates in Europe indicate that winter wheat plantings are running 5-10% higher than last year due to continued high prices. On the other hand, the recent price break of about 20% in contrast with a continuing surge in soybean prices has reduced wheat's ability to compete in the Battle for Acres. Weather is still generally supportive: dry in the hard red winter areas of the Southwestern US Plains where it is forecast to remain dry through Saturday, and wet in Australia, which is unfavorable to maturing wheat and continues to present the possibility of harvest delays. The surprisingly strong price action overnight and the oversold condition highlighted by the Commitments of Traders Report tells us that it is time to temper our bearishness and look for selective bullish trading opportunities.

The market managed a modestly higher close yesterday after rebounding from 2-month lows, despite a generally weak tone in outside markets. This hook reversal from an extreme oversold technical condition could spark some follow-through technical buying in wheat early this week. The early break to the lowest level since August 30th failed to attract new selling interest from speculators and the market experienced a surge higher from short-covering. Commercial buying and bull spreading help pull nearby Minneapolis wheat futures up 15 cents on the day which provided a base of support for the other wheat exchanges. Ideas that demand is a little better than expected, slight weather problems in Argentina and Australia and dry weather issues in the US helped provide some underlying support. Weekly export inspections, released during the session, came in at 29.4 million bushels, which was within trade expectations. Shipments need to average 17.6 million bushels per week to reach the current USDA export forecast for the 2007/2008 season. A lack of rain in the 7-day forecast for the hard red winter wheat belt in the US was also seen as a positive factor. Weakness in corn helped spark the early pressure but buyers were active into the mid-session.

Australia is still too wet, and western Kansas down to the Texas Panhandle is still too dry. Forecasts do not indicate a major change in either of these conditions in the next few days. The weekend frost and light freezing conditions in Australia may have been a minor problem for flowering wheat, but there was not much damage overall. Hard and soft red wheat bases were mostly steady. The weekly Winter Wheat Conditions report showed 53% was rated good/excellent compared to 55% last week and 59% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 60%. Kansas crop ratings slipped to 55% good to excellent from 62% last week and 66% as the 10-year average.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago unverändert gegenüber obigem Bericht (Handelspause bis 16.30 Uhr)

Januar Weizen Hannover plus 1.50 auf 233.50. Tief/Hoch 232/233.50. Geld/Brief 233.50/235. Umsatz 13, davon 9 Januar.
 

Wheat Market Recap Report for 11/6/2007

December Wheat finished up 12 at 797, 6 1/2 off the high and 2 up from the low. July Wheat closed up 15 1/2 at 686. This was 9 1/2 up from the low and equal to the high.

Export demand was an early feature this morning but today's price strength was mainly the result of sharply higher gold and energy prices brought on by a weaker dollar. Pakistan announced tenders for a total of 320,000 tons of wheat followed by Japan's regular tender for 140,000 tons of wheat. Pakistan has not bought any US wheat this year and typically buys only one-two cargoes. Also, Korea Flour Mills will tender for 20,000 tons of US wheat and Germany will buy 70,000 tons of European wheat for its strategic food reserve. Cuba contracted for 150,000 tonnes of Canadian wheat for delivery next year. Argentina wheat sales stood at 8.825 million tons as of Nov 2 according to the Agricultural Secretariat. This is unchanged from the same date last year and may tie in with reports that the new President of Argentina may not open export registrations in advance of her proposed export tax increase. In that same vein, a wheat contract between a Brazilian mill and an Argentine exporter went into default today due to the lack of an export license according to Brazil's largest milling trade group. The USDA reported on Monday that 92% of the US Hard Red Winter wheat crop has been seeded compared to a 93% average for this time of year. The already dry US winter wheat areas are not expected to see any rain through Saturday which could cause a bit of further deterioration in crop conditions. Kansas crop ratings slipped to 55% good to excellent from 62% last week and 66% as the 10-year average. In addition, the rain in the forecast for next week is not expected to reach into the dry areas of the western plains.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 12 auf 809. Tief/Hoch 797/811. Umsatz rund 7.000.

Januar Weizen Hannover plus 1.50 auf 235, auch Tief/Hoch. Umsatz 6, davon 3 Januar.
 

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 11/9/2007

December wheat traded 2 1/2 cents lower in overnight action.

Another slow news morning in wheat as the market awaits this morning's USDA Supply/Demand estimates. A great deal of technical damage was done to the December Chicago contract yesterday which would seem to eliminate the chance for a test of the highs this year. Weakness was brought on by disappointing export sales which appear to show that some importers are no longer nervous about near tightness and are willing to sit back, wait for lower prices and keep their inventories relatively tight. The next few weeks should tell us whether that will be the trend during early 2008. More damage was done yesterday by the so-called "Goldman roll," a 5-day period when funds liquidate their long positions in nearby contracts and roll them into deferred contracts. Thursday was said to be "day two." World weather is generally improved. In Australia, drier weather over the next few days will help mature wheat along with the wheat harvest. Some feel that rains in September and October may have benefited wheat more than previously thought. In the US, there is a possibility of much needed rain today in the Texas Panhandle, north Texas and Oklahoma. In Argentina, however, a chance of frost over the weekend and into next week may hurt wheat that is still flowering. This damage should not be a major factor. Traders expect the USDA to lower US wheat ending stocks this morning to 290 million bushels from 307 in October. The range of estimates is 221-312. Some analysts feel that with the stocks number already at the lowest level in 60 years, the USDA will not be able to lower their estimate any further after Friday as current estimates are getting very close to mere "pipeline" coverage. The North Sea storm which caused Rotterdam to be closed overnight did not breach storm defenses.

Weak export sales news, a sharp break in financial markets and fund selling emerged to drive the market to the lowest level since August 30th with funds noted sellers of near 2,000 contracts into the mid-session. A.618 retracement of the April to the September rally comes in at 767 1/2 for December Wheat. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in before the open at a shockingly low 14,600 metric tonnes, as compared to trade expectations between 350,000-550,000. The low number was a result of cancellations by: Egypt (57,000 tonnes), Morocco (49,000 tonnes) and unknown (224,500 tonnes) among others. Cumulative sales have reached 85.0% of the USDA forecast as compared to 57.8% on average over the last five years. Sales of 156,100 metric tonnes per week are needed to reach the USDA estimate. This week's sales cancellations seem to confirm rumors from earlier this week that importers who had bought near the highs in September were canceling contracts with the goal of repricing them at lower levels. Strength in deferred contracts in Chicago and KC might possibly be signaling that some of this repricing will be for more deferred delivery dates. There has been a lot of talk about "pipeline" stocks ahead of today's Supply/Demand Report. The actual amount of grain needed to fill the pipeline at any given moment is an unknown quantity, but it is possible that strength in deferred contracts in Chicago and KC indicates that importers are finding efficiencies in their own pipelines that will allow them to buy wheat for slightly later delivery dates. The southwest corner of Kansas has had less than 1/2 inch of rain over the past 30 days with most at less than 1/4 inch. Weekly crop progress shows topsoil at very short to 100% short in these areas.

Warm and dry conditions still prevail in the US Great Plains with some chance of rain in dry areas in the southern and western wheat belt today. Weather and overall conditions are improved in Australia and flowering wheat is at some minor risk from frost in Argentina over the weekend. Hard and soft red wheat bases were mostly steady in growing areas and at the Gulf.

The USDA did not revise US 2007/08 all wheat production which remains at 2.067 billion bushels. US ending stocks were pegged at 312 million bushels as compared with the average trade estimate at 290 million bushels (range 221-312) and 307 million posted in the September USDA report. Traders expected a higher export forecast but the USDA left US exports unchanged from last month. World wheat production came in at 603.3 million tonnes from 600.47 million posted last month. The USDA lowered its Australian production estimate to 13.0 million tonnes from 13.5 million last month. World wheat ending stocks came in at 109.8 million tonnes up slightly from 106.97 million tonnes posted last month. Last month was the lowest world ending stocks figure since 1975.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 2.50 auf 759.50. Tief/Hoch 755.25/763.75. Umsatz rund 7.500.

Mai Weizen Hannover minus 2.70 auf 232.50. Tief/Hoch 232.10/234. Geld/Brief 232/235. Umsatz 15, davon 13 Mai.

Neue Ernte: November Geld/Brief 190/198 nach Schluss 192 am Vortag.
 

Wheat Market Recap Report for 11/9/2007

December Wheat finished unchanged at 762, 2 off the high and 17 up from the low. July Wheat closed unchanged at 681 1/2. This was 15 1/2 up from the low and 1 1/2 off the high.

Wheat saw early weakness based on a slightly bearish Supply/Demand Report this morning. Follow-through selling drove the market sharply lower into midday based on weakness in equity markets, long liquidation and some concerns over a potential slight softening in near term export demand for wheat. While any losses in export sales will be very small, this is disappointing given the incredible tightness that the market was worrying about earlier in the week. The December Chicago contract dropped to within 3-4 cents of the next support level at 741 before rallying close only about one cent lower on the day. There is some chance of rain today in dry areas of the southwestern US wheat belt. Drier weather In Australia is also negative to prices. The USDA's November Supply/Demand Report came out before the opening. US ending stocks were pegged at 312 million bushels as compared with the average trade estimate at 290 million bushels (range 221-312) and 307 million posted in the September USDA report. Traders expected a higher export forecast but the USDA left US exports unchanged from last month. World wheat production came in at 603.3 million tonnes from 600.47 million posted last month. The USDA lowered its Australian production estimate to 13.0 million tonnes from 13.5 million last month and they lowered Australian exports by 500,000 tons. Argentine exports were raised by 1.0 million tons. World wheat ending stocks came in at 109.8 million tonnes up slightly from 106.97 million tonnes posted last month. Last month's figure was the lowest world ending stocks total since 1975. US farmer selling remains very light for hard red winter wheat. Supplies are tight and farmers are not inclined to incur any further tax liabilities by selling before the end of the calendar year. Basis levels are mostly steady with little farmer selling for calendar year 2007.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 5.75 auf 756.25. Tief/Hoch 754.50/764.75. Umsatz rund 5.100.

Mai Weizen Hannover minus 0.20 auf 232. Tief/Hoch 232. Geld/Brief 231.50/235. Umsatz 9, davon 5 Mai.
 

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 11/12/2007

December wheat traded 6 1/4 cents lower in overnight action.

Outside markets are down substantially this morning, led by gold which dropped about 20 dollars overnight. Crude oil is also expected lower adding to a generally bearish tone to start. Argentina will reopen its export registry for wheat on Tuesday. Wheat shipments in the Black Sea are being curtained this morning due to storms that have already sunk four ships. Traders estimate that Russian October shipments will come in at a second record of over 2.5 million tons. Importers booked heavily last month to beat the new 10% tariff that starts today. India issued a wheat import tender today without specifying an amount. India has been mostly absent from the market since the highs were put in. Their reentry could be very friendly depending on the amount wanted with talk that the amount is near 350,000 tonnes. Hungary wants to build up a 100,000 to 300,000 tons grain reserve if EU rules allow. There was little rain in the dry areas of the southwestern wheat belt on Friday and over the weekend. There was no frost in Argentina over the weekend, but the air mass due in during the next 1-3 days may bring freezing weather that could be damaging to any wheat that is still flowering or heading. The Argentina harvest is thought to be near 8% complete. Dry weather in Australia continues. This is helpful to harvest.

Wheat saw early weakness on Friday based on a slightly bearish Supply/Demand Report. Follow-through selling drove the market sharply lower into midday based on weakness in equity markets, long liquidation and some concerns over a potential slight softening in near term export demand for wheat. The December Chicago contract dropped to within 3-4 cents of the support level at 741 before rallying to close only about one cent lower on the day. There was some chance of rain on Friday in dry areas of the southwestern US wheat belt. Drier weather in Australia was also negative to prices. The USDA's November Supply/Demand Report came out before the opening and showed US ending stocks at 312 million bushels as compared with the average trade estimate at 290 million bushels (range 221-312) and 307 million posted in the September USDA report. Traders expected a higher export forecast, but the USDA left US exports unchanged from last month. World wheat production came in at 603.3 million tonnes from 600.47 million posted last month. The USDA lowered its Australian production estimate to 13.0 million tonnes from 13.5 million last month and they lowered Australian exports by 500,000 tons. Argentine exports were raised by 1.0 million tons. World wheat ending stocks came in at 109.8 million tonnes, up slightly from 106.97 million tonnes posted last month. Last month's figure was the lowest world ending stocks total since 1975. US farmer selling remained very light for hard red winter wheat. Supplies are tight and farmers are not inclined to incur any further tax liabilities by selling before the end of the calendar year. Basis levels were mostly steady.

Dry conditions still prevail in the US Great Plains with some chance of rain in dry areas in the southern and western wheat belt today. Weather and overall conditions are improved in Australia, and flowering wheat is at some minor risk from frost in Argentina over the next 1-3 days. Hard and soft red wheat bases were mostly steady in growing areas and at the Gulf. The Commitments of Traders Report with options showed non-reportable traders (small specs) net short by 35,114 contracts from last week. The supplemental report which excludes index funds showed that trend-following funds are also substantially short by nearly 15,847 contracts. This factor should be supportive from lower levels. Today's generally bearish trend in commodities should spill over into wheat.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 6.25 auf 655.75. Tief/Hoch 754.50/764.75. Umsatz rund 5.400.

Mai Weizen Hannover minus 1.20 auf 231. Tief/Hoch 231/232. Geld/Brief 231/235. Umsatz 38, davon 18 Mai.
 

@ Richard Ebert [#185]

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 6.25 auf 655.75. Tief/Hoch 754.50/764.75. Umsatz rund 5.400.

Da ich schon einige Zeit short bin würde mich das zwar nicht stören, aber 655,75 stimmt nicht, richtig ist 755,75
 

Wheat Market Recap Report for 11/12/2007

December Wheat finished down 1 at 761, 9 off the high and 12 up from the low. July Wheat closed down 5 1/2 at 676. This was 2 1/2 up from the low and 4 off the high.

The market closed slightly lower on the session after two-sided trade for much of the day. A test of Friday's lows failed to generate new selling interest and the market closed well off of the lows of the day. The early strength seemed to come from a firming tone in stocks, but this was followed by a wave of selling. The market has since rebounded to near yesterday's closes in all contracts or higher. High prices for wheat have cause feeders in Europe to switch out of wheat for some time. Some traders indicated today that this trend has been stronger than previously reported. It is now possible that some feed wheat could be freed for normal wheat exports. This would tie in with last week's report that some importers are looking to cancel purchases made near the highs and reprice at lower levels. Confirmation seemed to come on last week's Export Sales Report which showed massive cancellations. India announced a tender earlier today and trade sources now indicate that it could be for 350,000 tons. Russia's new export duty of 10% went into effect today. Black Sea loadings have been postponed today due to bad weather. US weather remains very dry in the southwestern hard red wheat belt. Over the past 7 days, precipitation amounts in the Texas Panhandle, southwestern Kansas and Oklahoma were near zero. The Argentine harvest has been progressing slowly but steadily. Frost warnings last week caused minimal damage. More talk of possible freezing temperatures this week are causing mild concern for any wheat that is still flowering or heading. Export inspections will be released tomorrow due to the holiday.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 0.25 auf 760.75. Tief/Hoch 757.75/762.50. Umsatz rund 2.700 - sehr niedrig.

Mai Weizen Hannover minus 3.30 auf 228. Tief/Hoch 228/230. Geld/Brief 227.10/235. Umsatz 29, davon 9 Mai.

November Weizen Geld/Brief 186/197, Vortag 190.
 

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 11/13/2007

December wheat traded 2 3/4 cents lower in overnight action.

Outside markets are mixed this morning, with the dominant factors being higher gold and a lower dollar. India's farm minister said today that he expects a good crop and that this year's wheat imports should be limited to 2.3 million tons for 2007. This is due mainly to higher plantings. The farm minister had earlier said that imports could reach 7.0 million tons, but unofficial reports had already indicated a lower figure about a month ago. India has already bought about 1.3 million tons for 2007. Of those total purchases, they have actually imported about 282,000 tons. The US weather pattern remains very similar to that seen for the last two weeks, especially in the Great Plains and very dry areas of the southwestern plains. Moderate precipitation has been seen in southern Illinois and from Indiana eastward over the past two weeks with heaviest amounts the farther east you go. Showers and warm weather this week should further benefit Chicago wheat. Dry weather in Australia continues to bolster the harvest and this should start to bring harvest selling. Much cooler weather is expected in Argentina tonight and Wednesday which again may impact late flowering wheat. So far, the problems have been slight. Argentina announced yesterday that it would reopen export registrations today, but the timeframe for registrations will be reduced from about one year to only 90 days. Export taxes have already been raised from 20% to 28%. Japan will tender for 155,000 tons of wheat from the US, Canada and Australia at its regular weekly tender.

The market closed slightly lower on the session yesterday after two-sided trade for much of the day. A test of Friday's lows failed to generate new selling interest and the market closed well off of the lows of the day. The early strength seemed to come from a firming tone in stocks, but this was followed by a wave of selling. High prices for wheat have caused feeders in Europe to switch out of wheat for some time now. Some traders indicated on Monday that this trend has been stronger than previously reported. It is now possible that some feed wheat could be freed for normal wheat exports. This would tie in with last week's report that some importers are looking to cancel purchases made near the highs and reprice at lower levels. Confirmation seemed to come on last week's Export Sales Report which showed massive cancellations. India announced a tender earlier yesterday and trade sources now indicate that it could be for 350,000 tons. Russia's new export duty of 10% went into effect yesterday. Black Sea loadings have been postponed today due to bad weather. US weather remained very dry in the southwestern hard red wheat belt. Over the past 14 days, precipitation amounts in the Texas Panhandle, southwestern Kansas and Oklahoma were near zero. The Argentine harvest has been progressing slowly but steadily.

Dry conditions still prevail in the US Great Plains with chance of showers and cool weather in soft red areas. Weather and overall conditions are improved in Australia and flowering wheat is again at risk from frost in Argentina over the next two days. Hard and soft red wheat bases were mostly steady in growing areas and at the Gulf. Selling remains light for the 2007 calendar year. Export inspections will be released today at 10:00 and weekly crop conditions are due out at 3:00 CST. Argentina announced yesterday that it would reopen export registrations today, but the timeframe for registrations will be reduced from about one year to only 90 days. Export taxes have already been raised from 20% to 28%. Mixed messages from outside markets.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 2.75 auf 758.25. Tief/Hoch 757.75/762.50. Umsatz rund 3.400 - niedrig.

Mai Weizen Hannover minus 3.20 auf 228.10. Tief/Hoch 228/230. Geld/Brief 228.10/235. Umsatz 32, davon 12 Mai.
 

Wheat Market Recap Report for 11/13/2007

December Wheat finished down 13 at 748, 17 off the high and 2 1/2 up from the low. July Wheat closed down 14 1/2 at 661 1/2. This was 1 1/2 up from the low and 14 off the high.

Outside markets were generally not a factor today despite the sharply lower prices in crude oil. Most importantly, Informa released new crop US acreage projections for 2008/09 after the open. They put wheat at 64.1 million acres, up 3.7 million acres from last year and the market reacted with a sharp break to last week's lows in the December Chicago contract. All contracts were lower throughout the session. Weekly export inspections, also released during the session, came in at 23.1 million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 25-30 million. Cumulative shipments have already reached 55.7% of the USDA forecast for the entire marketing year as compared with 44.7% on average over the past 5 years. Exports need to average 17.4 million bushels per month to reach the USDA projection. Weather is perhaps the biggest factor this week. We continue to see dry conditions in the southwestern US and this is turning into a serious fundamental issue. Forecasts call for continued dryness for the next 5-7 days. As a result, in today's early trade, the new crop KC September contract has gained more than 7 cents on Chicago September. India's announcement today that they would limit 2007 wheat imports to a total of 2.3 million tons was not a big surprise, but it demonstrates the high degree of flexibility that importers are starting to show. This is change from only a week or so ago when traders had been expecting a real scramble for tight old crop supplies. Stories such as these may help to explain why the USDA has failed to raise its US wheat export number in line with the fast face of exports so far. It will be very interesting to see if this week's Export Sales Report brings further cancellations on Friday.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 5.50 auf 742.50. Tief/Hoch 741/749.50. Umsatz rund 9.300, deutlich höer.

Mai Weizen Hannover minus 8 auf 220. Tief/Hoch 220/225. Geld/Brief 220.10/224. Umsatz 17, davon 9 Mai.

Neue Ernte: Januar 2009 minus 5 auf 190. Geld/Brief 190/197. Umsatz 6.
 

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 11/14/2007

December wheat traded 7 1/4 cents lower in overnight action.

Outside markets are generally supportive, with gold and crude higher and the dollar lower. Weaker prices appear to have generated some export demand. Jordan is in the market for 100,000 tons of hard wheat, probably Black Sea origin. Pakistan is expected to start evaluating bids for its 300,000 ton tender and Morocco is looking to buy 300,000 tons of soft wheat. Iraq may also be in the market, but no tenders so far. Crop conditions are generally very good for soft red, with Ohio's crop rated 87% excellent, about the same as last week and 15% above the 10-year average. Conditions for soft red get a bit worse to the west of Ohio, and hard red wheat continues to deteriorate. The Kansas wheat crop dropped to 49% good/excellent compared to 55% last week. Oklahoma dropped to 40% versus 45% last week. Overall the winter wheat crop's "poor to very poor" rating jumped to 16% from 13% last week. The weather forecast for southwestern hard red wheat areas remains dry. Russia is expected to extend its export restrictions until January to fight domestic food inflation, but the Russian agricultural minister raised this year's Russian export total to 12-14 million tons from 12 million tons due to the record pace of September and October. However, the US attache in Moscow in a report out yesterday left Russia's exports unchanged at 12 million tons and said that most of Russia's wheat will be shipped by December due to the high tariffs. The winter wheat crop is now 95% planted. Attempts to pressure Chicago are likely to continue, but good support from current levels should result in a significant short-covering bounce.

Outside markets were generally not a grain market factor yesterday, despite sharply lower prices in crude oil. Informa released new crop US acreage projections for 2008/09 after the open. They put wheat at 64.1 million acres, up 3.7 million acres from last year, and the market reacted with a sharp break to last week's lows in the December Chicago contract. All contracts - KC and Chicago - were lower throughout the session. Weekly export inspections, also released during the session, came in at 23.1 million bushels, a bit disappointing compared with trade expectations at 25-30 million. Still, cumulative shipments have already reached 55.7% of the USDA forecast for the entire marketing year as compared with 44.7% on average over the past 5 years. Exports need to average 17.4 million bushels per month to reach the USDA projection. Weather is an important factor this week. We continue to see dry conditions in the southwestern US wheat belt, and this is turning into a serious issue. Forecasts call for continued dryness for the next several days. As a result, in yesterday's early trade, the new crop KC September contract had gained about two cents on Chicago September. India's announcement that they would limit 2007 wheat imports to a total of 2.3 million tons was not a big surprise, but it demonstrates the high degree of flexibility that importers are starting to show. This is change from only a week or so ago when traders were still expecting a scramble for tight old crop supplies and importers were rushing to book Black Sea supplies before the new Russian export taxes kicked in. These developments may help to explain why the USDA has failed to raise its US wheat export number despite the fast export pace of recent months. It will be very interesting to see if this week's Export Sales Report on Friday brings further cancellations.

Dry conditions still prevail in the US Great Plains with chance of showers and cooler weather in soft red areas. Hard and soft red wheat bases were mostly steady in growing areas and at the Gulf. Selling remains light for the 2007 calendar year. The weekly crop updates showed that 49% of the crop was rated in good/excellent condition as compared to 53% last week and 59% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 59%. Gold and crude oil are moderately supportive this morning. Import demand has resurfaced and market is oversold. Continued moves by soybeans into new highs is a mixed factor.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 7.25 auf 740.75. Tief/Hoch 740.75/749.50. Umsatz rund 10.600.

Mai Weizen Hannover minus 8 auf 220. Tief/Hoch 220/225. Geld/Brief 220/225. Umsatz 29, davon 14 Mai.
 

Wheat Market Recap Report for 11/14/2007

December Wheat finished up 4 1/2 at 752 1/2, 6 off the high and 8 1/2 up from the low. July Wheat closed up 11 at 672 1/2. This was 13 1/2 up from the low and 2 1/2 off the high.

A sharply higher open in all wheat contracts was followed by continued strength during midday. Late in the session, however, a wave of technical selling hit the December 07 Chicago contract based on fears that export demand will be weak near term for US origin wheat as well as fund liquidation. Weakness in Europe and ideas that Russia, Argentina and Ukraine will provide wheat for the world market over the near-term added pressure. However, the surge higher in the other grain markets and a more inflationary tilt to commodity markets today supported KC and deferred Chicago, especially September Chicago, contracts on the break. New crop Kansas City wheat was up more than 10 cents into the mid-session as dryness in Kansas and the southeast is beginning to raise some concerns. A lack of rain in the last three weeks is beginning to hit crop conditions. The weekly crop updates showed the Kansas wheat crop at 49% good/excellent compared to 55% last week. Oklahoma dropped to 40% versus 45% last week. Jordon is tendering to buy 100,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat. Basis levels at the Gulf were steady for soft red wheat. Tunisia has already purchased 1.1 million tonnes of wheat in the first nine months of the year which is up 24% from last year's pace.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 4 auf 756.50. Tief/Hoch 753.75/761.75. Umsatz rund 3.900.

Mai Weizen Hannover plus 2 auf 225. Tief/Hoch 225. Geld/Brief 223.50/226. Umsatz 6, davon 2 Mai.
 

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 11/15/2007

December wheat traded 3 1/2 cents higher in overnight action. Outside markets are mixed with the dollar higher and gold and crude lower in early overnight trade.

While oversold and showing signs that speculators hold a hefty net short, the market will need to see signs of better demand or continued crop concerns to see much follow-through from yesterday's hook reversal from a 3-month lows. France's farm ministry lowered its estimate of this year's soft wheat crop by 30.97 million tons from 31.27 in October. This is down 7% from last year and nearly 10% from a 5-year average. However, they raised estimated maize production due to sharply increased yields. Japan bought 155,000 tons of wheat from the US, Canada and Australia as expected. Export business seems to be dried up for now, and all exporters have available supplies for the time being. China sold 18,802 metric tons of imported wheat from its reserves; abut 15% of the total available. The southern US plains remain dry. Precipitation being forecast is for Thursday or Friday of next week. For now, we consider this unchanged. Weather in Australia is also unchanged with dry conditions advancing early harvest and benefiting late developing wheat. Weather in Argentina is also holding the pattern we have seen for nearly a week: cool weather, frost and a possible freeze with scattered, minimal damage possible to flowering wheat. Modest strength in the market should continue at least over the short term based on supportive technicals and dry weather in the US. On the negative side, all major wheat exporters are open for business for the first time in awhile and we do not see any fresh tender announcements. Traders will be very interested in seeing whether tomorrow's Export Sales Report shows any further cancellations for wheat.

A sharply higher open in all wheat contracts yesterday was followed by continued strength during midday. Late in the session, however, a wave of technical selling hit the December 07 Chicago contract based on fears that export demand will be weak near term for US origin wheat. Funds were small net buyers. Weakness in Europe and ideas that Russia, Argentina and Ukraine will all be available to provide wheat for the world market over the near-term added pressure. However, the surge higher in the other grain markets and a more inflationary tilt to commodity markets yesterday supported KC and deferred Chicago, especially September Chicago, on the break. New crop Kansas City wheat was up more than 10 cents into the mid-session as dryness in Kansas and the southeast are raising some real concerns. A lack of rain in the last three weeks is beginning to show up on the Crop Conditions Report. The weekly crop updates showed the Kansas wheat crop at 49% good/excellent compared to 55% last week. Oklahoma dropped to 40% versus 45% last week. Jordon is tendering to buy 100,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat. Basis levels at the Gulf were steady for soft red wheat. Tunisia has already purchased 1.1 million tonnes of wheat in the first nine months of the year which is up 24% from last year's pace.

Dry conditions still prevail in the US Great Plains. Possible showers are forecast next Thursday and Friday. Eastern soft red areas continue to benefit from scattered showers and cooler weather. Hard and soft red wheat bases were mostly steady in growing areas and at the Gulf. Selling remains light for the 2007 calendar year. Export Sales Report due out tomorrow. Weather in southwestern plains and a lack of fresh export demand are the key fundamental factors this morning. Import demand seems to be satisfied for now.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Vor Beginn des Parketthandels um 16.30 Uhr notierte Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 3.50 auf 756. Tief/Hoch 753.75/761.75. Umsatz rund 4.400.

Mai Weizen Hannover plus 4 auf 227. Tief/Hoch 225/227. Geld/Brief 225/227. Umsatz 14, davon 4 Mai.
 

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 11/16/2007

December wheat traded 2 cents lower in overnight action. Outside markets are a marginally supportive influence this morning with crude oil and gold higher in overnight trade.

Wheat may see a quiet day today with the possibility of a small break. However, the short term trend should remain higher into early next week. Funds bought 3,000 contracts yesterday according to trade sources. Japan will tender for 150,000 tons of wheat from the US, Australia and Canada for January delivery in its regular tender. The market is still waiting for results from old tenders by India, Pakistan, Jordan and Japan for up to 757,800 tons. This is another indication that all of the world's sellers are in the market and that they have supplies available until early 2008. Also, China plans to sell 200,000 tons from its reserve of imported wheat on Wednesday. The EU granted import licenses for 80,885 tons of wheat today, leaving 1.3 million tons of low and medium quality wheat available under their quota system. Traders expect the export sales situation to return to a more normal conditions on this week's report after last week's surprising cancellations. Export sales are expected at 250,000 to 400,000 tons compared to 14,600 tons last week. The US needs to sell 156,000 tons per week to reach the USDA projection. Further cancellations on the scale of those seen on last week's report would be very negative.

Early strength in wheat prices yesterday was almost entirely technical. Trader sentiment is growing that wheat is oversold, especially in Chicago nearby contracts. New crop (deferred) Chicago wheat prices were also higher, but they lagged nearby contracts by 10 cents or more during much of the session due to favorable growing conditions in eastern soft red wheat growing areas. Chicago wheat also may also be gaining on unwinding of long corn/short wheat spreads. Again, the Chicago strength was primarily concentrated in the nearby contracts. Weather forecasts for the southern Great Plains showed signs of changing toward including more precipitation. Early yesterday, rain was forecast for late next week. Later in the day, expectations of rain were moved up to early next week in some forecasts along with sharply lower temperatures. There was very little export business in evidence ahead of today's Export Sales Report. All major wheat exporters have lifted restrictions at least through the end of the calendar year, so export supplies are ample at present.

Yesterday, forecasts called for rains in dry areas of the southwestern US wheat belt by late next week, but today the chance of significant rain over the next 6-10 days is being called "slight." Dry conditions should continue to stress wheat in those areas with cooler temperatures slowing crop development. Eastern soft red areas continue to benefit from showers and cooler weather. Chances of frost in Argentina continue, but this is not considered significant. Hard and soft red wheat bases were mostly steady in growing areas and at the Gulf. Selling remains light for the 2007 calendar year. Japan is buying 150,000 tons of wheat in a regular tender. All major wheat exporters have lifted restrictions at least through the end of the calendar year.

Weekly export sales for wheat, released before the open, came in at 416,000 tonnes, which was just above the upper end of trade expectations.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 2 auf 763.50. Tief/Hoch 762.25/770. Umsatz rund 5.900.

Mai Weizen Hannover plus 1 auf 227. Tief/Hoch 227. Geld/Brief 225.70/229. Umsatz 10, davon 3 Mai.


 

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 11/19/2007

December wheat traded 6 1/2 cents higher in overnight action. Good support from outside markets: crude oil, soybeans and corn.

There is a firm tone across all wheat contracts this morning, supported by outside markets. Severe dryness persisted over the weekend on the western Great Plains, with the greatest dryness still in the southwestern belt, and this should add to the overall strength. Very little rain is expected across hard red winter wheat areas this week. This is becoming a very serious issue and should result in a further increase in the "poor-to-very-poor" category on this week's Crop Progress Report. Last week this figure doubled to 16%s. More rain expected in soft red areas this week, where conditions are good. Australia may see showers in southeastern wheat areas early this week, possibly delaying early harvest. Argentina had very light scattered showers over the weekend with more possible later in the week. Warmer weather has returned to Argentina eliminating any further concern over crop stress due to frost/freeze, although one weather specialist dropped production by a slight 200,000 tons from the current Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimate of 15.2 million due to several hard frosts in Buenos Aires province last week. Last week's cyclone in Bangladesh may have destroyed more than 600,000 tons of rice according to the government there. If true, this will worsen an already tight food situation there. Look for strength across all wheat contracts based on short covering in Chicago and deteriorating conditions in western hard red areas.

Traders expected to see some buying emerge early on Friday based on supportive outside market forces, stronger than expected export sales news and higher trade in the other grains. However, a lack of new buying from speculators, some corn/wheat selling and ideas that the surge higher on Thursday was overdone helped spark a sharp sell-off after the open, and the market closed near the lows. Talk that the frost in Argentina caused little, if any, damage may have added to the bearish tone. In the US, there was some rain in the forecast for the winter wheat areas this week, but that did not develop. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at a very healthy 416,000 metric tonnes, which was above trade expectations. Cumulative sales have already reached 86.3% of the USDA forecast for the entire marketing year as compared to 59.4% on average over the last five years. Sales of just 147,100 metric tonnes per week are needed to reach the USDA estimate.

Severe dryness persisted over the weekend on the western Great Plains, with the greatest dryness still in the southwestern belt. Very little rain is expected across hard red winter wheat areas this week. Last week this figure stood at 16%s. More rain expected in soft red areas this week. Australia may see showers in southeastern wheat areas early this week, possibly delaying early harvest. Argentina had very light scattered showers over the weekend with more possible later in the week. Warmer weather has returned eliminating any concern over crop stress due to frost/freeze. Hard and soft red wheat bases were mostly steady in growing areas and at the Gulf. Jordan is tendering for 100,000 tons of optional origin hard wheat for shipment between now and mid-December. Morocco announced a tender for 316,000 tons of soft wheat according to European sources. Japan is in for 8,000 tons. Small specs continue to hold a near record long position in Chicago wheat as seen on the latest Commitments of Traders Report with options. They are net short 36,331 contracts having reduced this by 1,217 in the past week. Small specs are also net short in KC by a hefty 13,950, down 210 on the week. Export Inspections due out at 10:00. Crop Progress due out at 3:00.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 6.50 auf 756. Tief/Hoch 750.25/759.50. Umsatz rund 6.200.

März Weizen Hannover minus 1.80 auf auf 223. Tief/Hoch 222.90/223. Geld/Brief 223/224.70. Umsatz 7, davon 5 März.

Mai Weizen Taxe minus 1 auf 224.
 

Wheat Market Recap Report for 11/21/2007

March Wheat finished up 30 at 826, equal to the high and 31 up from the low. July Wheat closed up 22 1/2 at 710. This was 24 1/2 up from the low and 1 off the high.

Wheat moved strongly higher on the open followed by limit up closes in the December, March and May contracts. Traders concentrated today on a number of bullish factors including continued poor weather in dry western US wheat growing areas that did not receive much, if any, rain over the past two days. Some forecasters are taking expected rain out of their forecasts for this weekend as well. Pakistan is rumored to be back in the market for an unspecified amount of wheat. This possible buying comes hard on the heels of a large tender by Pakistan last week. Rumors of another India purchase in coming weeks are also in the news which seems to indicate that export demand is on an upswing. This should eliminate any ideas of further major cancellations of export sales. The bullish fundamentals are complimented by the very bullish structure of the Commitments of Traders Report which has continued to show near record large numbers of small speculators short for several weeks. Traders are expecting this weeks Export Sales Report to show 300,000 to 500,000 tons of new sales compared to 416,000 tons on last week's report.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Gestern:Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 30 auf 803.50. Tief/Hoch 772/803.50. Umsatz rund 84.000.

Heute: Mai Weizen Hannover plus 5.90 auf 235. Tief/Hoch 235. Geld/Brief 232/237. Umsatz 11, davon 3 Mai.


 

Chicago:: Börse gestern geschlossen.

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 8 auf 811.50. Tief/Hoch 805.50/815. Umsatz rund 7.600.

Januar Weizen Hannover unverändert 232. Tief/Hoch 232. Geld/Brief 224/234. Umsatz 8, alle Januar.
 

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 11/23/2007

December wheat traded 2 1/2 cents higher in overnight action. Outside markets are mixed. Strength in wheat is based on short covering.

Look for strength to continue. High volatility a possible factor today in light trade during a holiday-shortened session. Focus remains on export demand, light farmer selling in the US and short covering. China will double farm subsidies in order to increase food production and reduce the flow of migrants into Chinese cities. The effort in wheat appears to be concentrated on raising yields as opposed to expanding acreage. Some traders expect Russia's wheat exports for November to come in at 1.7 to 2.0 million tons versus a record 2.84 in October. India's farm minister said today that they will face a domestic shortfall in wheat production for three years (to 2010). Snow is forecast across almost all of the dry areas of the southwestern Great Plains over the next 24 hours. Traders are looking for 300-500,000 tons on this week's Export Sales Report which compares to 416,000 tons last week. Still some talk that Pakistan and India may tender for more wheat after making a large purchase earlier this week. The market should continue to probe resistance in possible run at new all-time highs.

Wheat moved strongly higher on the opening on Wednesday followed by limit up closes in the December, March and May contracts. Traders concentrated on a number of bullish factors including continued poor weather in dry western US wheat growing areas that did not receive much, if any, rain over the previous two days. Some forecasters took expected rain out of their forecasts for the weekend as well. Pakistan was rumored to be back in the market for an unspecified amount of wheat. This possible buying came hard on the heels of a large tender by Pakistan last week. Rumors of another India purchase in coming weeks are also in the news, which seems to indicate that export demand is on an upswing. This should eliminate any ideas of further major cancellations of export sales. The bullish fundamentals are complimented by the very bullish structure of the Commitments of Traders Report, which has continued to show near record large numbers of small speculators short for several weeks.

Dryness in the southern US Plains may be alleviated somewhat by snow forecast for the driest areas of the southern Plains over the next 48 hours. Hard and soft red wheat bases were mostly steady. More demand expected by India during next three weeks, and maybe Pakistan. Overall demand for wheat is good. Wheat emergence and condition are still a problem. We need the snow forecast over the next 24 hours to possibly help with emergence in very dry areas and benefit the overall crop during dormancy. The absence of floor traders in a holiday-shortened session raises the risk of increased volatility. Weather may be a slight drag with snow forecast in dry areas of the southwestern wheat belt. Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 491,800 tonnes for the current crop and 18,700 tonnes for new crop for a total of 510,500, which was above trade expectations.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 2.50 auf 806. Tief/Hoch 805.50/815. Umsatz rund 8.700.

Mai Weizen Hannover unverändert 235. Tief/Hoch 235/235.50. Geld/Brief 236/239.80. Umsatz 41, davon 4 Mai.
 

Wheat Market Recap Report for 11/23/2007

March Wheat finished up 19 1/2 at 845 1/2, 10 1/2 off the high and 18 1/2 up from the low. July Wheat closed up 3 1/2 at 713 1/2. This was 13 up from the low and 8 off the high.

Wheat prices opened higher in sympathy with stronger outside markets and the new 33-year highs seen in the nearby (Jan) soybean contract. Prices continued to move sharply higher midday, eventually touching limit up in nearby contracts before falling back into the close. Early in they session, new crop wheat contracts (July, Sept Dec) traded lower, but during midday they too moved sharply higher into midday before falling off at the close. Dryness shows some slight signs of moderating in the highly stressed areas of the southwestern wheat belt, but the amounts of moisture expected over the next 24-48 hours are light. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at 510,500 metric tonnes which is at the high end of trade expectations at 350,000-450,000. Cumulative sales have reached 87.9% of the USDA forecast as compared to 61.6% on average over the last five years. Sales of 134,900 metric tonnes per week are needed to reach the USDA estimate. The market closed at noon.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 8.50 auf 835. Tief/Hoch 825/841. Umsatz rund 11.400.

Mai Weizen Hannover plus 9 auf 245. Tief/Hoch 242/245. Umsatz 41, davon 14 Mai.
 

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 11/26/2007

March wheat traded 15 1/4 cents higher in overnight action. Outside markets along with corn and the soy complex are strong.

Despite the fast run-up late last week, the market continues to move higher in dramatic fashion. Funds bought 4,000 contracts on Friday, and much of this may have been short covering. In addition to short covering, the potential for increased outright buying by both index funds and trend-following funds is very supportive. Russia is also a friendly influence this morning. Wheat prices there are higher today, and traders say that Russia will not extend its export restrictions until at least next year. Also, increased availability of transport in Russia is generating buying. India's farm minister said Friday that they will face a domestic shortfall in wheat production for three years (to 2010). He also announced that seeding is 23% behind last year's pace. India is expected to tender for 350,000 tons of wheat, as expected. US weather continues to be mixed to supportive. Dryness persists in the southwestern wheat belt, but moisture levels are good to ample to the east and north. Also, temperatures are expected to be mild in most wheat-growing areas. Argentina crop conditions may be supportive as well with growing dryness reported there.

Wheat prices opened higher Friday in sympathy with stronger outside markets and the new 33-year highs seen in the nearby (Jan) soybean contract. Prices continued to move sharply higher into midday, eventually touching limit up in nearby contracts before falling back into the close. Early in the session, new crop wheat contracts (July, Sept Dec) traded lower, but during midday they too moved sharply higher before falling off somewhat at the close. Dryness was showingsome slight signs of moderating in the highly stressed areas of the southwestern wheat belt over the weekend, but the amounts of moisture expected were light. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at 510,500 metric tonnes on Friday, which is at the high end of trade expectations. Cumulative sales have reached 87.9% of the USDA forecast as compared to 61.6% on average over the last five years. Sales of just 134,900 metric tonnes per week are needed to reach the USDA estimate.

Dryness in the southern US Plains was alleviated slightly by snow over the weekend, and some rain is forecast later this week. This may help with late emergence, but that is about all. Stronger prices in Russia today. India expected to tender for 350,000 tons. Movement in the US remains light as we approach yearend. Basis levels mostly steady. Overall demand for wheat is good. Crop progress and weather are key factors today. Some snow fell in dry areas of the southwestern wheat belt over the weekend and more rain is forecast later this week. Attention may shift to somewhat late plantings in India. Short covering from an extremely oversold level is still the key technical factor.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

März Weizen Chicago plus 15.25 auf 860.75. Tief/Hoch 845.50/861. Umsatz rund 12.700.

Mai Weizen Hannover plus 10 auf 246. Tief/Hoch 242/246. Geld/Brief 245/247.90 Umsatz 81, davon 19 Mai.

Neue Ernte: November plus 6 auf 200. Tief/Hoch 198/200. Geld/Brief 192/201. Umsatz 13.
 

Wheat Market Recap Report for 11/26/2007

March Wheat finished down 11 1/2 at 834, 29 off the high and 3 up from the low. July Wheat closed down 3 1/2 at 710. This was 2 1/2 up from the low and 11 off the high.

Wheat prices opened higher based on a broad set of bullish factors including: higher outside markets, continued solid export demand, continued dryness in the US southwestern wheat belt, higher prices in Russia and the expected lifting of import tariffs for most cereals in the EU as well as continued unwinding of long corn/short wheat spreads. The market sold off into midday, however, and closed near the lows of the day. The Commitments of Traders Report will be out a 3:00 today, a day late due to last week's holiday. This report has shown in recent weeks that wheat is undersold on a long term basis. If the report shows that specs have still not liquidated their near record large short position, it will be very supportive in most trader's minds. Weekly US export inspections came in at just 15.1 million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 18-24 million bushels. Shipments need to average 17.2 million bushels per week to reach the USDA projection for the marketing year. However, cumulative shipments have already reached 59.2% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 48.2% as the 5-year average for this time of the year.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

März Weizen Chicago plus 4 auf 838. Tief/Hoch 826.75/838. Umsatz ca. 6.400.

Mai Weizen Hannover minus 2.60 auf 243. Tief/Hoch 243. Geld/Brief 243/245. Umsatz 9, davon 2 Mai.
 

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